Exclusive interview - Catherine Cashmore and UK economist Fred Harrison delve into the economics of the 18 year property cycle
I reached out to UK economist Fred Harrison this week for a chat about the real estate cycle. I put forward to him some of the most asked questions I get from subscribers each week.
Most subscribers are familiar with Fred’s work.
An Oxford University graduate, Fred is a Fellow of the New Economics Foundation and a research associate at the Land Values Research Group. He’s also the author of more than 20 books, including The Power in the Land, The Corruption of Economics, and Boom/Bust 2010.
But Fred’s popularity is built on his knowledge of the 18-year property cycle, which he initially publicised with the hope it would inspire a change to economic policy.
This knowledge enabled him to forecast the recession of 1991 — eight years before it happened.
And the great financial recession of 2008 in 1997 — 11 years before it happened.
In 1997, he wrote in his book The Chaos Makers:
‘By 2007 Britain and most of the other industrially advanced economies will be in the throes of frenzied activity in the land market…land prices will be near their 18-year peak…on the verge of the collapse that will presage the global depression of 2010.’
In 2015, on his website, he forecasted a ‘mid-cycle crash’ for 2019–20.
Even today, most mainstream economists would deny that it’s possible to accurately predict recessions years in advance.
Yet, Fred’s track record is unsurpassed.
In addition, he has conducted a vast amount of research into economic cycles to highlight the cause and, therefore, the ultimate cure to the boom/bust pattern.
Needless to say, Fred continues to work tirelessly in his own advocacy for a better economic system.
I’ve interviewed Fred a couple of times for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscribers previously.
However, in today’s interview — exclusive to Land Cycle Investor — we dig deeper into the reasons why this cycle differentiates from others.
What it means for the ultimate forecast of a 2026 peak.
Where can people put their money at the end of the cycle to protect themselves from a severe economic downturn?
Has COVID and the work-from-home culture affected the gains that we can expect landowners to accumulate through the second half of the cycle?
How economics became corrupted and why most politicians and mainstream economists deny there’s a predictable cycle.
And, of course, we’ll uncover how we can avoid a disastrous recession at the end of this decade — and potentially war — through changes to the economic system.
Essential background reading for those that are new to the cycle, and the two books mentioned in the discussion are:
The Power in the Land (1983) — Fred Harrison
#WeAreRent Books 1 & 2 (2021/2) — Fred Harrison
Progress and Poverty: An Inquiry into the Cause of Increase of Want with Increase of Wealth: The Remedy (1879) — Henry George
I hope you enjoy the chat as much as I did!