Exclusive interview - Catherine Cashmore and UK economist Fred Harrison delve into the economics of the 18 year property cycle


I reached out to UK economist Fred Harrison this week for a chat about the real estate cycle. I put forward to him some of the most asked questions I get from subscribers each week.

Most subscribers are familiar with Fred’s work.

An Oxford University graduate, Fred is a Fellow of the New Economics Foundation and a research associate at the Land Values Research Group. He’s also the author of more than 20 books, including The Power in the Land, The Corruption of Economics, and Boom/Bust 2010.

But Fred’s popularity is built on his knowledge of the 18-year property cycle, which he initially publicised with the hope it would inspire a change to economic policy.

This knowledge enabled him to forecast the recession of 1991 — eight years before it happened.

And the great financial recession of 2008 in 1997 — 11 years before it happened.

In 1997, he wrote in his book The Chaos Makers:

‘By 2007 Britain and most of the other industrially advanced economies will be in the throes of frenzied activity in the land market…land prices will be near their 18-year peak…on the verge of the collapse that will presage the global depression of 2010.’
In 2015, on his website, he forecasted a ‘mid-cycle crash’ for 2019–20.

Even today, most mainstream economists would deny that it’s possible to accurately predict recessions years in advance.

Yet, Fred’s track record is unsurpassed.

In addition, he has conducted a vast amount of research into economic cycles to highlight the cause and, therefore, the ultimate cure to the boom/bust pattern.

Needless to say, Fred continues to work tirelessly in his own advocacy for a better economic system.

I’ve interviewed Fred a couple of times for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts subscribers previously.

However, in today’s interview — exclusive to Land Cycle Investor — we dig deeper into the reasons why this cycle differentiates from others.

We discuss:

What it means for the ultimate forecast of a 2026 peak.
Where can people put their money at the end of the cycle to protect themselves from a severe economic downturn?
Has COVID and the work-from-home culture affected the gains that we can expect landowners to accumulate through the second half of the cycle?
How economics became corrupted and why most politicians and mainstream economists deny there’s a predictable cycle.
And, of course, we’ll uncover how we can avoid a disastrous recession at the end of this decade — and potentially war — through changes to the economic system.
Essential background reading for those that are new to the cycle, and the two books mentioned in the discussion are:

The Power in the Land (1983) — Fred Harrison

#WeAreRent Books 1 & 2 (2021/2) — Fred Harrison

Progress and Poverty: An Inquiry into the Cause of Increase of Want with Increase of Wealth: The Remedy (1879) — Henry George

I hope you enjoy the chat as much as I did!


Our Services

Buyer Advocacy

Buyer Advocacy

Whether you want us to bid at auction, or provide a comprehensive buyer advocacy service to search, asses and negotiate your ideal investment property or home, we tailor a plan ideally suited to your individual needs.

Read More


We have the expertise to assist with any type of development you are considering - large, or small - from concept to completion.

Read More

What our Clients are Saying

Catherine worked tirelessly in finding me a great property at a good price. She did things that I wouldn't have done (hours and hours of legwork) and more importantly, couldn't have done (organising the purchase before anyone else had even put in an offer). When I was ready to give up, Catherine kept working. I'm certain that I never would have been able to buy the same property within 10k of what we eventually settled at.... David
The expertise you bring are excellent and helped us understand the process and what to do and what not to do. You discussed at the beginning that by using you it will save us money and in our instance and the current environment of Melbourne’s market I believe you saved us $100,000 or enabled us to get into a suburb which going to auction would have gone way over our limit. You worked tirelessly to help us purchase a home.... Karen
“You impressed us from the start, especially compared with the other buyers agencies we approached…” - Raj

More Testimonials

Why use Cashmore & Co?

Cashmore & Co are experts in market cycles and property investment 

Catherine Cashmore has accrued many years experience working in the Australian real estate market. She is President of Australia's oldest economics organisation (Prosper Australia) and has lectured widely on the real estate cycle and the economics of land.

it's this knowledge that sets Cashmore & Co apart from other real estate agencies. 

Cashmore & Co won't 'spruik' the market, or try and convince you that it's always a good time to buy.

Rather, Cashmore & Co use their expertise to assist investors, home buyers, and developers to make wise decisions based on their individual budgets and unique circumstances. 

They simplify the buying process saving buyers thousands in negotiation, as well as preventing costly mistakes.

Many of our clients benefit from insider secrets we have gleaned from years of experience that buyers, sellers, and developers, simply do not have access to. 

You can’t help but accrue this kind of on-the-ground knowledge when you’re involved with literally dozens of purchases and sales each year.(And also when you have a rare knowledge of the long-term property cycle as your framework.)

Whether it’s getting into a suburb you thought was out of reach, saving a hundred grand by avoiding a too-good-to-be-true apartment pitch, or getting a foot through the door in a hot market, Cashmore & Co has all the practical property ‘hacks’ to place you ahead of the competition.

Investors not only gain assistance with their property investments, with Cashmore & Co they have access to a treasure trove of advice and strategies that help extract the maximum amount of wealth creation from the 18-year cycle that you will not get anywhere else. 

Please click here to see the range of services we offer. 

Or contact us for more information. 

About Catherine

Catherine Cashmore

Owner & Director

Herald Sun Pic .jpg

Catherine Cashmore has been working in the Australian real estate market for over 14 years.

Originally from the UK, and having also lived in the US, Catherine has extensive experience across a range of international real estate markets.

As a buyer and seller advocate, Catherine has assisted hundreds of home buyers, investors, and developers, find, assess, and negotiate, quality real estate for great prices throughout Australia.

She is President of Australia's oldest economics organisation, Prosper Australia - an organisation that has conducted vast amounts of research into the economics of land, market cycles, and the intricacies of how tax and government policy affect the markets.

Catherine is a regular and highly respected media commentator. She has often been called upon to guest lecture at universities and educational institutions (including RMIT and Sydney University) on how tax policy affects the real estate market, the design of cities, and the economy.

She is the editor of Fat Tail Investment Research's Cycles, Trends, & Forecasts, Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor, and Catherine Cashmore's Real Estate Wealth Course – publications that teach real estate and stock market investors about the land cycle, its impact on the economy, and how to create wealth from property and stocks using this knowledge.

She is also one of the former editors of the extremely popular The Daily Reckoning Australia (or the ‘DR’ as it's affectionately known to its 60,000 subscribers).  The DR is an independent financial news broadcaster that has been in the business of reporting financial trends that shape the economy since 1999.

Previously authoring the annual ‘Speculative Vacancies’ report, the only study in the world that analyses long-term vacant housing based on water usage data (Australia-focused), Catherine has an in-depth knowledge of the Australian real estate market and economic environment few can rival.

You can contact Catherine directly on 0458 143 089 or at cc@cashmoreco.com.au 

Meet the Team

Please contact us for more information
or call us on +61 458 143 089

Contact us for More Information

Contact Us