James Woodburn interviews Catherine Cashmore on timing the top of the cycle
9/11/2021
Dear Reader,
Chances are you’ve heard a hundred warnings about the state of the Australian economy today…
ABC News recently warned we face a ‘profound downturn’ triggered by COVID lockdowns.
Earlier this year The Guardian dubbed the rapidly rising property market ‘insane’.
And even the IMF has taken aim at Australia, claiming at the start of 2021 that property prices could ‘unwind in a disorderly manner’.
In short, though our stock market recently hit all-time highs and property prices across our biggest five cities soared 15% in the last year (and are still rising), there’s no lack of doomsayers claiming we’re on the verge of economic Armageddon.
I spoke to one of them in our own ranks last week (see my chat with Vern Gowdie here).
But today, you’re going to get a VERY different view on the Australian economy — one that flies in the face of those gloomy forecasts.
That’s not to say there’s no gloom on the horizon. It’s just that it’s still a fair way off. That’s according to Catherine Cashmore, co-editor of Cycles, Trends & Forecasts.
She views the markets via the land price cycle, which turns every 18 years — with 14 years up, four years down, and a mid-cycle slowdown in between.
If she’s right, we’re just coming out of a harsh mid-cycle (lockdown-induced) slowdown right now. And there are a few heady years ahead.
An end-of-cycle crash will come…but before that an extraordinary amount of wealth can be made.
What few people know is that it’s all down to the land. Check it out:
James Woodburn
Publisher, The Insider
Listen to the interview here
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