The Downturn of 2019

2/01/2019

In 2014 I wrote this blog post predicting a period of financial instability in 2019 based on the skyscraper index.

It coincides nicely with the completion of ‘the tallest’ residential tower in the Southern Hemisphere – Australia 108 in Melbourne – which at 319 metres, will exceed the height of the current record holder – the Eureka Tower – and unless we see changes to current policy – will mark another period of financial instability.

Following the slowdown in the market cycle in 2018 due to the Royal Commission into the banking sector causing an extreme tightening in lending conditions, not to mention jitters regarding the pending general election in 2019.... All indicators point to further downward pressure in land values into 2019 - and it may not be pretty.

The Sky scraper index is rubbished by a few who have not studied it in full. However, my comments are also based on our expertise of the 18 year cycle - you can find more information regarding that from my business partner Phillip J. Anderson at www.andresoncashmore.com.au.

Following this downturn, we're entering a boom into a 2026/2027 peak and land price lead recession/depression into 2027/2028.

I'll write more detail on this and how you can advantage from it in the next post.

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Catherine worked tirelessly in finding me a great property at a good price. She did things that I wouldn't have done (hours and hours of legwork) and more importantly, couldn't have done (organising the purchase before anyone else had even put in an offer). When I was ready to give up, Catherine kept working. I'm certain that I never would have been able to buy the same property within 10k of what we eventually settled at.... David
The expertise you bring are excellent and helped us understand the process and what to do and what not to do. You discussed at the beginning that by using you it will save us money and in our instance and the current environment of Melbourne’s market I believe you saved us $100,000 or enabled us to get into a suburb which going to auction would have gone way over our limit. You worked tirelessly to help us purchase a home.... Karen
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Cashmore & Co are experts in market cycles and property investment 

Catherine Cashmore has accrued many years experience working in the Australian real estate market. She is President of Australia's oldest economics organisation (Prosper Australia) and has lectured widely on the real estate cycle and the economics of land.

it's this knowledge that sets Cashmore & Co apart from other real estate agencies. 

Cashmore & Co won't 'spruik' the market, or try and convince you that it's always a good time to buy.

Rather, Cashmore & Co use their expertise to assist investors, home buyers, and developers to make wise decisions based on their individual budgets and unique circumstances. 

They simplify the buying process saving buyers thousands in negotiation, as well as preventing costly mistakes.

Many of our clients benefit from insider secrets we have gleaned from years of experience that buyers, sellers, and developers, simply do not have access to. 

You can’t help but accrue this kind of on-the-ground knowledge when you’re involved with literally dozens of purchases and sales each year.(And also when you have a rare knowledge of the long-term property cycle as your framework.)

Whether it’s getting into a suburb you thought was out of reach, saving a hundred grand by avoiding a too-good-to-be-true apartment pitch, or getting a foot through the door in a hot market, Cashmore & Co has all the practical property ‘hacks’ to place you ahead of the competition.

Investors not only gain assistance with their property investments; with Cashmore & Co they have access to a treasure trove of advice and strategies that help extract the maximum amount of wealth creation from the 18-year cycle that you will not get anywhere else. 

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About Catherine

Catherine Cashmore

Owner & Director

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Catherine Cashmore has been working in the Australian real estate market for over 14 years.

Originally from the UK, and having also lived in the US, Catherine has extensive experience across a range of international real estate markets.

As a buyer and seller advocate, Catherine has assisted hundreds of home buyers, investors, and developers, find, assess, and negotiate, quality real estate for great prices throughout Australia.

She is President of Australia's oldest economics organisation, Prosper Australia - an organisation that has conducted vast amounts of research into the economics of land, market cycles, and the intricacies of how tax and government policy affect the markets.

Catherine is a regular and highly respected media commentator. She has often been called upon to guest lecture at universities and educational institutions (including RMIT and Sydney University) on how tax policy affects the real estate market, the design of cities, and the economy.

She is the editor of Fat Tail Investment Research's Cycles, Trends, & Forecasts, Catherine Cashmore's Land Cycle Investor, and Catherine Cashmore's Real Estate Wealth Course – publications that teach real estate and stock market investors about the land cycle, its impact on the economy, and how to create wealth from property and stocks using this knowledge.

She is also one of the former editors of the extremely popular The Daily Reckoning Australia (or the ‘DR’ as it's affectionately known to its 60,000 subscribers).  The DR is an independent financial news broadcaster that has been in the business of reporting financial trends that shape the economy since 1999.

Previously authoring the annual ‘Speculative Vacancies’ report, the only study in the world that analyses long-term vacant housing based on water usage data (Australia-focused), Catherine has an in-depth knowledge of the Australian real estate market and economic environment few can rival.

You can contact Catherine directly on 0458 143 089 or at cc@cashmoreco.com.au 

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